Casting wish from potion of wonder before khelly?

[Al-Khwarizmi]

Nice math. I suppose I've been lucky (or optimistic) if I was guessing 60% then.

Note however that one typically finds a pool in the UD, and it is also possible to find one in other dungeons, so the average number of pools found in the game by that point is probably 11 point something, boosting the chance to 50%.

[Dogbreath]

I'd say the 50% figure is pretty accurate as I get a wish from pool sipping in about half my games. I've actually gotten more wishes from pools in the UD than Darkforge. Probably just confirmation bias, though...

[JellySlayer]

In my experience, I'd say it's probably about 60% of the times if you do it right (i.e. removing dooming as many times as possible - I also always wear the blessed ankh, although I don't know if it has an influence).

With TH, in around 60% of the games I already get an AoLS without the need for draining pools, so putting it all together, it is pretty infrequent that I need to let Khelavaster die.

These numbers seemed very high to me, so I ran some numbers based on the YAVP forums:

Total winners in YAVP forum is 537. Overall, 229 of those save Khelly, and 318 take treasure hunter.
Of the 229 players who save Khelly, 174 had treasure hunter and 55 did not.

So:
42 percent (229/537) of winners save Khelly.
If you have TH, your odds of saving Khelly are 55 percent (174/318)
If you don't have TH, your odds of saving Khelly are 25 percent (55/219)

This includes saving Khelly by pools. The way I ran the search, this also includes reported non-standard wins (eg. Ironman), that can't possibly save Khelly. It also includes extremely scummed wins (eg. wish engines) that are pretty much guaranteed to save him. But that's a ballpark approximation for your odds of saving him.

[Al-Khwarizmi]

But not all the players want to go through the hassle (and dangers) of draining the pools in order to save him, I suppose a fair number of them don't (at the beginning, I didn't dare do it myself). And there are also players that think it is more important to use early-game wishes for immediate survivavility rather than for an AoLS. So those stats, although very interesting, are probably underestimated. They say how many players did save Khelly, but not how many could have done so if they had made everything possible to get a wish and to use it precisely on that.

The stats do hint at the effectiveness of TH though, if TH characters are saving Khelly more than twice the time... especially taking into account that TH does not affect pools, so those stats would imply that the chance of finding an AoLS/RoDS is multiplied by significantly more than 2 with TH.

[JellySlayer]

Sure, but the number of players willing to go through very extreme lengths to save Khelly is probably not so large. I mean, if you're playing 1.1.1 and are willing to use a gremlin bomb, your odds of saving Khelly are nearly 100 percent. What I'd say is that these figures represent, reasonably well, the probability that an average player, using typical methods, will save Khelly.

[mike3]

In my experience, I'd say it's probably about 60% of the times if you do it right (i.e. removing dooming as many times as possible - I also always wear the blessed ankh, although I don't know if it has an influence).

With TH, in around 60% of the games I already get an AoLS without the need for draining pools, so putting it all together, it is pretty infrequent that I need to let Khelavaster die.

I'm curious about this, since I've never done it before: Doesn't it spend up a significant amount of game time crossing the wilderness to reach other dungeons containing altars to do the offerings to remove the dooming? With the 90-day limit (and now 180-day limits and beyond in the new versions) and all that... And what about pool aging, when you're playing a shorter-lived race?

[Al-Khwarizmi]

I'm curious about this, since I've never done it before: Doesn't it spend up a significant amount of game time crossing the wilderness to reach other dungeons containing altars to do the offerings to remove the dooming? With the 90-day limit (and now 180-day limits and beyond in the new versions) and all that... And what about pool aging, when you're playing a shorter-lived race?

In my experience you don't get doomed that often, maybe twice on average, four times if you are very unlucky. The CoC has a guaranteed altar and it is not so far. So pool draining does put some pressure on the clock but it's not that bad.

For example, my latest winner (a ratling duelist, http://www.adom.de/forums/showthread...ist-(1-2-0p14)) did it, and he finished in 91 days, meaning that the gate was closed by day 90. But even if he had spent some days more and gotten some background corruption, 6 blessed SoCR's is 6 blessed SoCR's.

About aging, yes, that's dangerous. I'd probably think twice before pool-sipping with an orc or a troll.

[Stingray1]

It does take some gametime, but not too much. Most often you will have an altar in the CoC and that's not so far from DF.
In one game I was running to TF:2, which was both funny and cool.

I have aged an orc to death in DF, so it sure can happen.
The rewards for saving Khelavaster is worth it, I suppose and if you are eager for an ultra an the AoLS haven't come naturally the pools are probably your best bet.

I'm standing next to Khelly at the moment without an AoLS, contemplating.

[gut]

> What I'd say is that these figures represent, reasonably well, the probability that an average player, using typical methods, will save Khelly.

average players using typical methods beat adom? Your brain has turned purple.

[Silfir]

> What I'd say is that these figures represent, reasonably well, the probability that an average player, using typical methods, will save Khelly.

average players using typical methods beat adom? Your brain has turned purple.

Average "player who beats ADOM". Already included.