Classes and races favored by newbies: an empirical analysis

[gilesc]

(The title is a little misleading, this actually expanded beyond just looking at newbies, to looking at ultras, star sign usage, and class usage over time as well. Also, as Al-Khwarizmi points out, anyone who has finished the game is not truly a newbie -- I just use the term "newbie" in a relative sense.)

There is a lot of opinion on these forums, in the Guidebook, and even in the game itself, about what races and classes are easiest for new players. GE Wizard, for example, is considered very easy, although my personal experiences have differed.

So, I decided to look at the data. I wrote a program to scrape all the YAVP posts in the YAVP forum, and pull out data from those posts which posted FLGs, and also classify them, using the text by the author, as to whether they were first wins or ultras. A lot of this can be improved on technically, but I just wanted to get a rough answer. I got a total of 434 wins, including 59 first wins, and 220 ultras, and 155 non-first, non-ultra wins.

The code used to generate the dataset and figures, along with the dataset itself, can be found at:
https://bitbucket.org/gilesc/adom-analysis

Now, the data!

Race usage for all players

I was surprised Gnome wasn't higher, and to a lesser extent Dwarf.

race.png

Class usage for all players

This one is extremely unsurprising:

class.png

Now, for the more interesting info. These charts show the frequency of a race or class being chosen by first-win players, divided by the frequency by non-first-win players. A higher number means it is more favored by (successfully winning) newbies.

Races preferred by new players more than other players

It seems to me that newbies aren't exactly following the advice of commonly accepted newbie races, except perhaps gnomes. Apparently they like elves, also this figure makes it clear that while seasoned players are using Dark Elves heavily, new players do not like them as much.

first-race.png

(ignore the attached thumbnails below, these were generated before I realized that first ultras should not be counted as first wins)

There is a lot more to be done with this data: R/C combos, ultra win analyses, star signs, and perhaps even looking at what artifacts are good predictors of victories. Also, this code could easily be adapted to look at YASDs, which would also be interesting. I will continue posting as I get more.

[gilesc]

Classes preferred by new players more than other players

Obviously Necromancer immediately jumps out as being favored by newbies, surprisingly. Part of that is due to small amount of data for that class (8 for first wins, 4 for non-first-wins). The statistically correct way to do this would be with p-values but I didn't want to lose everyone.

The rest of the classes mostly make sense, but one trend that immediately emerges is that newbies favor melee classes! I know I do. This may shed some light on discussions on these forums about how melee characters are underpowered compared to ranged and magic. It seems this problem disproportionately affect newbies, who do not yet know about the balance situation.

first-class.png

Races preferred by ultra players more than other players

Interestingly, people seem to prefer low To races, and especially elves for ultras. This makes sense, because the high Ap might help a little bit against corruption. I have no idea why ratlings are so popular, or why High Elves are extremely unpopular despite the relatively similar Grey and Mist elves being at the top of the list. Perhaps people like to go neutral to start for ultras so they have a greater chance at SoCRs from the dwarven mystic. grobblewobble points out that HE is basically the same as GE, except with slightly lower Le. This may account for most of the difference, but still, one would expect HE to be more suitable for an ultra than many of the races ranked above it.

ultra-race.png

Classes preferred by ultra players more than other players

The ultra classes also are a little confusing. Generally they are classes that don't fall neatly into the "melee", "ranged", "magic" trichotomy. The only thing they really seem to have in common is being classes that are relatively hard. Necros being favored both by ultra players and newbies compared to seasoned players pursuing a regular ending is an interesting twist.

ultra-class.png

[gilesc]

Favored race-class combos (all players)

In this heatmap, higher numbers (lighter colors) represent more common R/C combos, and it is normalized per class. You see some usual suspects as highly used combos: GE wizard, HE archer, Drakeling monk. I was sad to see that Gnome is the least likely race for Duelist; I had a good run with my Gnome Duelist and think their awesome class powers benefit from fast leveling.

What is especially interesting, I think, is the clustering of races and classes. In a nutshell, (relatively) shitty races cluster together on the bottom, and versatile ones at the top. For classes, casters, along with semicasters in a subcluster of their own on the right, and high-To and mostly melee or melee/ranged on the left. Monk is apparently in a class of its own in many ways.

rc.png

Favored star signs (all players)

We all know that there are a few widely used signs, and the data obviously bear this out. I was a little surprised about Dragon and especially Falcon being relatively popular, though.

star-sign.png

Favored sign/class combos (all players)

Much of it fits conventional wisdom, although the popularity of Sword among Barbarians is a little surprising, apparently Monks are undecided about Candle vs Raven, and lots of Wizards apparently like Tree. That actually does make sense, when I think about it.

sign-class.png

Star signs favored by ultra players more than other players

Unicorn is apparently universally hated, which made me wonder if at least some ultra players might favor it (I think it's now fixed?). Nope. Although many of these YAVPs were posted before it was fixed.

But for whatever reason, ultra players do like Wolf, relatively speaking, and are quite down on Raven, despite its awesomeness. Perhaps because they fear it will slow their already arduous leveling task, which also accounts for the popularity of Cup. This would seem to imply that many ultra players know they are going for an ultra at character selection.

The popularity of Tree among ultra players is a little surprising considering how it makes the drastic alignment shifts they will often undergo more difficult, but I suppose amulets of <alignment> do work fine, if you just give them enough time. Tree also falls off late game, which continues the mystery.

ultra-sign.png

Popularity of different classes over time

In this plot, a positive number means that the class has gotten more popular with time, and negative less popular. Interestingly, the clear trend is that pure casters AND pure melee are becoming less popular, in favor of semicasters. It is nice to see Duelist and Chaos Knight at the top of the list, because they were introduced relatively recently. Perhaps people have gotten bored with Wizard, conventionally thought to be easy, as it is dead last.

class-popularity-time.png

Popularity of different races over time

(Thanks to Silfir for asking questions leading to this). grobblewobble comments below that Ratlings have a "novelty factor", and indeed their popularity seems to be increasing. Mist Elves, being a newly introduced race, would naturally be at the top as well. In general it appears people are moving from the "easy" races to the harder ones, as they gain more experience. The exception being Dwarves and arguably HE. It will be interesting if the influx of new players from Steam will change this dynamic.

Apparently players aren't getting the memo, mentioned by grobblewobble, that HE are a worse form of GE.

Silfir's hypothesis about Gnomes, Dwarves, and Hurthlings likely becoming more popular due to herb training changes appears to be wrong, except perhaps in the case of Dwarves. But given the sharply decreasing popularity of the other two, it is likely for another reason that Dwarves are seeing increased popularity.

(apparently there is a limit on attachments per post, so I will instead post a table)

Ratling	0.16
Mist Elf	0.13
Dwarf	0.08
High Elf	0.05
Troll	0.04
Dark Elf	0.01
Orc	0.01
Drakeling	0
Human	-0.03
Hurthling	-0.07
Gnome	-0.09
Gray Elf	-0.14

[Silfir]

Gray elven wizard used to be easier than it is (though it is still an extremely powerful combo), but now getting 25 To is much less of an automatic thing, especially for elves. The change to how potentials affect herb stat training provided a boost to gnomes, dwarves or hurthlings, so if these races used to be somewhat less popular than they should be now, that might be part of the reason.

This is great data and thank you for compiling it. I'd love to look into it more, but I don't have the time at the moment.

[Al-Khwarizmi]

(the title is a little misleading, this actually expanded beyond just looking at newbies, to looking at ultras, star sign usage, and class usage over time as well)

Well, given that what you look at is YAVP's, I would say that you didn't look at newbies at all Someone who claims a (legitimate) win is by definition not a newbie, IMO.

The analysis is very nice nevertheless, I'll surely dive into all this data when I have some time!

[grobblewobble]

The analysis is very nice nevertheless, I'll surely dive into all this data when I have some time!

Yeah, this is a great opportunity for some data mining research. I'll come up with a contribution soon.

[blunk]

Well, given that what you look at is YAVP's, I would say that you didn't look at newbies at all Someone who claims a (legitimate) win is by definition not a newbie, IMO.

-

The analysis is very nice nevertheless, I'll surely dive into all this data when I have some time!

I agree to both these claims.
Endless of crap characters were never near the first yavp.
If the steam version comes with an online highscore where you can make the same stats on deaths before reaching caverns of chaos (or before tower of eternal flames) ....

***Maybe ot ***
As one who have really struggled, wrong mindset, unable to grasp gameconcepts and maybe some missguidance were my main problems.
In the early years, no internet guidance. (Looking up solutions in guides wasn't the way to play it back then and still isn't for a few select.)
Later guides, high toughness is important so yeah I play orc, also fits the newbie theme of carrying all the junk including normal small+wooden shields, clothes etc.
Tries with wizards or similar have failed most likely because I've gone full "mage", killed everything with magic, especially things that could have been killed in melee, running out of powerpoints or castings and then dying.
So for me wizard was too advanced.
A real eyeopener was Silfirs playthrough with HocusPocus, considering my lack of skills it was just mindblowing.
Only in the recent year I've learned and understood this game on a new level.

It can to some extent be summed up with:
Using the right tools for the right monsters (use the wand of fireballs if the situation is dire), dont spend mana on goblins, don't melee oozes/jellys for example. This probably takes time since theres so many monsters.
High learning score is important not only to early skill development but especially for getting a lot of spellcastings.
Pp-regen, some races sucks at casting not only because of low mana but also poor pp-regen on top. Theres also crown, ring, necklace and bracers of hp regen, no items that I can think of increase pp-regen.
***Maybe ot ***

/blunk

[wheals]

This data is really awesome; great job! Falcon, it looks to me, is only very slightly more popular than the rest there; is the difference actually statistically significant? At any rate, an extra talent is always nice even if it's no Candle.

[gilesc]

Thanks everyone for the nice comments.

Gray elven wizard used to be easier than it is (though it is still an extremely powerful combo), but now getting 25 To is much less of an automatic thing, especially for elves. The change to how potentials affect herb stat training provided a boost to gnomes, dwarves or hurthlings, so if these races used to be somewhat less popular than they should be now, that might be part of the reason.

Hmm, I didn't think about such changes, so I didn't look at race usage over time. I will add that.

Well, given that what you look at is YAVP's, I would say that you didn't look at newbies at all Someone who claims a (legitimate) win is by definition not a newbie, IMO.

Yes, a valid point. I edited the intro to make this proviso clearer.

Endless of crap characters were never near the first yavp.
If the steam version comes with an online highscore where you can make the same stats on deaths before reaching caverns of chaos (or before tower of eternal flames) ....

As one who have really struggled, wrong mindset, unable to grasp gameconcepts and maybe some missguidance were my main problems.
<snip>
/blunk

Yes, I agree looking at deaths is very important too. I plan to look at YASDs and compare the ratio of deaths to wins for different races and classes. If the Steam data will be accessible for data mining that would be awesome as it would greatly increase sample size.

Regarding your comments on casters, that has been my basic experience too: they are quite powerful when you know what you're doing, but for newbies, they can easily get into a bad situation and the low To (plus normally you get spell talents instead of defensive talents), can lead to high mortality. I think a shaky grasp on game concepts is a lot more fatal when you're playing a low HP class, especially in the early game.

Yeah, this is a great opportunity for some data mining research. I'll come up with a contribution soon.

In case you or someone else will find it useful, here is a link to the code and dataset:

https://bitbucket.org/gilesc/adom-analysis

Falcon, it looks to me, is only very slightly more popular than the rest there; is the difference actually statistically significant? At any rate, an extra talent is always nice even if it's no Candle.

No, it isn't a significant difference. My surprise was more due to the fact that it is considered equally useful to Salamander, Book, Tree, and Sword. All of those are niche signs that are useful under certain conditions, whereas, in my understanding, Falcon is strictly dominated by Candle and I don't know why you would pick it over Candle unless you went random.

[grobblewobble]

Sorry, I just wanted to tease Silfir a little with my comment - if I say I will do something "soon", it usually means "never".

Nice work, though.

I have no idea why ratlings are so popular, or why High Elves are extremely unpopular despite the relatively similar Grey and Mist elves being at the top of the list.

Ratlings are popular because they're novel and have the "cool factor".

High elves are unpopular because they are nearly exactly the same as grey elves, both in concept/lore and in terms of stats and skills. The best thing about high/grey elves is their learning, and grey elves get better learning. So high elf is a very redundant race, it's little more than a slightly gimped grey elf.

I was sad to see that Gnome is the least likely race for Duelist; I had a good run with my Gnome Duelist and think their awesome class powers benefit from fast leveling.

I don't think so, really. Gnome xp is unfortunately a very small bonus. Because the required xp/level curve is (approximately) exponential, they are typically only 1 or maybe 2 levels ahead of where another race would be. The only racial xp penalty that really makes a noticeable difference is troll.

Duelist is a class that offers great skills, but mediocre base stats. They also need good strength and con, because they're a very specialized melee class. So the most beneficial race pick for them is one that compensates, a race that gives you good strength and especially constitution to make you less frail. Dwarf if you care about age, or drakeling for the awesome spit ability.