Race/Class popularity in the rogueleague.org top 500

[sylph]

I am an actual statistician; that means it is likely I know more about sampling than any other member on these forums (unless they have a similar education). Opt-in options do not provide representative samples and in fact, they will create bias. The sample size does not correct bias; this a common misconception, but if your sampling method is poor, then lots of samples won't fix bias. You cannot assume that the players that choose to participate are the same as those that do not participate. Voluntary sampling methods are among the poorest options out there.

Honesty an opt-in that requires registration, I very much doubt that it is going to do a good job of representing the actual player base. You also have a violation of independence since multiple high scores belong to a single player, which means their playing preference may be over-represented, especially if they play a lot.

The bottom line here is that you should not be treating it as a representative sample, treat it as a quirky thing to look at and maybe fun to chat about, but don’t put too much stock in what you see here, as it is far from a fair sample.

I think it's *very* dangerous to assume you know more about sampling than any other member on these forums based on career or certification. I, for one, am also a statistician, and I don't for a second think it's unique or rare here, nor that I'm the best at anything.

As for the sample set - it's my understanding that it's not opt-in, but opt-out, which does have its own set of complications, but the mistake I think you're making is assuming that the posters here think it's a perfect sample set. They don't, they probably just think it's likely the best that the game has seen in its history.

As a statistician, I'm confident you'll know the difference between the word 'likely', 'probably', and 'definitely'.

[Grond]

Something a bit different this month. I've taken every single victory, and eliminated any duplicate combos from the same player. This ends up counting 553 victories in all.

Races

 1. Dark Elf  84
 2. Human     69
 3. Dwarf     64
 4. Gnome     53
 5. Mist Elf  46
 6. High Elf  43
 6. Ratling   43
 8. Hurthling 42
 9. Gray Elf  36
10. Drakeling 29
11. Troll     23
12. Orc       21

Lately in the top 500, Humans and Dark Elves have been accumulating wins at a similar rate, but more Dark Elves have been pushed out of the top 500. With the lower scoring wins counted, Dark Elves take a convincing first place. The other rankings are pretty similar to the top 500.

Classes

 1. Wizard       68
 2. Archer       46
 3. Monk         44
 4. Beastfighter 38
 5. Paladin      38
 6. Assassin     35
 7. Duelist      32
 7. Mindcrafter  32
 9. Barbarian    26
 9. Bard         26
11. Fighter      21
12. Chaos Knight 20
13. Priest       17
14. Thief        17
15. Merchant     16
16. Healer       13
16. Ranger       13
18. Druid        11
18. Elementalist 11
18. Weaponsmith  11
21. Necromancer  10
22. Farmer        8

Wizard was one of the most-repeated classes, so the gap between Wizard and the other most popular classes is smaller than in the top 500. There are a lot of low-scoring first wins with Archer, pushing it to second place. Mindcrafter drops a good deal from the elimination of duplicate combos. Chaos Knight places much higher, as all of the stupidest Chaos Knights are counted.

Top 30 Combos

 1. Dark Elf Archer       17
 1. Gray Elf Wizard       17
 3. Dwarf Paladin         16
 4. High Elf Archer       13
 5. Gnome Wizard          12
 6. Gnome Monk            11
 7. Dark Elf Beastfighter 10
 7. Dark Elf Wizard       10
 7. Human Monk            10
 7. Mist Elf Wizard       10
11. Dark Elf Paladin       9
12. Human Wizard           8
13. Hurthling Archer       7
14. Dark Elf Ranger        6
14. Dwarf Duelist          6
14. Human Duelist          6
14. Ratling Assassin       6
14. Ratling Monk           6
14. Troll Healer           6
20. Drakeling Mindcrafter  5
20. Gnome Bard             5
20. Human Assassin         5
20. Human Fighter          5
20. Human Mindcrafter      5
20. Hurthling Assassin     5
20. Hurthling Beastfighter 5
20. Hurthling Thief        5
20. Mist Elf Chaos Knight  5
20. Mist Elf Mindcrafter   5
20. Ratling Duelist        5

[Grond]

Top 500

Races

       1. Human     74
       2. Dark Elf  71
       3. Dwarf     58
  (5->)4. Mist Elf  43
  (4->)5. Gnome     41
  (8->)6. Hurthling 36
 (10->)7. Drakeling 33
  (6->)7. Ratling   33
  (6->)9. High Elf  32
 (9->)10. Gray Elf  30
      11. Troll     21
(11->)12. Orc       17

Classes

       1. Wizard       65
       2. Mindcrafter  45
       3. Monk         44
  (5->)4. Archer       36
  (4->)5. Paladin      32
       6. Assassin     30
  (6->)7. Beastfighter 29
       8. Barbarian    24
       9. Duelist      23
      10. Fighter      21
      11. Bard         19
      12. Priest       14
(14->)13. Elementalist 13
(12->)13. Thief        13
(16->)15. Merchant     12
(14->)15. Ranger       12
      17. Druid        11
      17. Necromancer  11
(17->)19. Chaos Knight 10
(21->)20. Farmer        9
      20. Healer        9
      22. Weaponsmith   7

Top 17 Combos

  (7->)1. Dark Elf Archer       13
  (2->)1. Dwarf Paladin         13
       1. Gray Elf Wizard       13
  (2->)1. Human Wizard          13
       5. Human Mindcrafter     12
  (6->)5. Human Monk            12
  (2->)7. Dark Elf Wizard       11
  (7->)8. Mist Elf Wizard       10
       9. Dark Elf Beastfighter  9
 (11->)9. High Elf Archer        9
      11. Drakeling Mindcrafter  8
      11. Gnome Monk             8
 (9->)11. Gnome Wizard           8
(11->)14. Dark Elf Paladin       7
(15->)14. Hurthling Archer       7
      14. Hurthling Monk         7
      14. Ratling Assassin       7

[grobblewobble]

Human is definitely one of the better races after the second buff, but it's still a bit surprising to see it win out over the Dark Elf skillset.

How was Human buffed?

And what do you mean by top 500? The 500 games with the highest score?

[Grond]

How was Human buffed?

+2 skill increases per level (increased from +1), and +1 to every attribute besides appearance.

And what do you mean by top 500? The 500 games with the highest score?

Correct. I do exclude some of the scores for being save-scummed copies of the same character, but otherwise it's just the 500 highest scores.

[grobblewobble]

That's an interesting buff, but not sure.. maybe in combination with the Skilled talent it can pay off? What do you think, did you pick human more often?

I'm surprised to see Mindcrafter at the second place, wow.

[Grond]

Not a big fan of the Skilled talents outside of a few specific classes (Druid, Necromancer), but one nice aspect of the +2 increases is that in some cases you can tank your Le to 6 in point buy and suffer no real consequences. The attribute buff also has a bigger impact with point buy since you are basically just getting an extra 29 points to allocate. The end result is a race with some of the best starting attributes, no huge weaknesses (worst you can say is Dx and Pe potentials suck), and a handful of moderate upsides (skill set, +2 skill ups, fast XP). Definitely played waaaay too many human mindcrafters after the buff. Human Book Bard with max Le is another fun one; not because it's good, but because leveling up is hilarious.

[Deslo]

That's an interesting buff, but not sure.. maybe in combination with the Skilled talent it can pay off? What do you think, did you pick human more often?

I'm surprised to see Mindcrafter at the second place, wow.

Me too, I don't get why Mindcrafter is at the second place... really strange

[Grond]

Top 500

Races

      1. Human     80
      2. Dark Elf  71
      3. Dwarf     60
      4. Mist Elf  45
      5. Gnome     39
      6. Hurthling 35
      7. Ratling   34
 (7->)8. Drakeling 32
 (9->)8. Gray Elf  32
(10->)8. High Elf  32
     11. Troll     22
     12. Orc       18

Lots of new scores, but very little shift in race popularity. Humans pull further ahead of dark elves.

Classes

       1. Wizard       71
       2. Mindcrafter  46
       3. Monk         41
       4. Archer       35
       5. Paladin      33
       6. Assassin     31
       7. Beastfighter 29
       8. Barbarian    26
       9. Duelist      22
      10. Fighter      20
      11. Bard         19
(13->)12. Elementalist 15
(12->)13. Priest       13
(15->)13. Ranger       13
      13. Thief        13
(19->)16. Chaos Knight 12
(15->)17. Merchant     12
(17->)18. Druid        11
(20->)18. Farmer       11
(17->)18. Necromancer  11
(20->)21. Healer        8
(22->)21. Weaponsmith   8

Again, not much shifting at the top, despite the number of new scores. The gaps between the top 3 widen.

Top 17 Combos

       1. Gray Elf Wizard       15
  (1->)2. Human Wizard          14
  (1->)3. Dark Elf Archer       13
  (1->)3. Dwarf Paladin         13
       5. Human Mindcrafter     12
       5. Human Monk            12
  (8->)5. Mist Elf Wizard       12
  (7->)8. Dark Elf Wizard       11
       9. Dark Elf Beastfighter  9
(11->)10. Gnome Wizard           9
      11. Drakeling Mindcrafter  8
(11->)12. Gnome Monk             8
 (9->)13. High Elf Archer        8
      14. Hurthling Archer       7
(14->)15. Ratling Assassin       7
(14->)16. Dark Elf Paladin       6
      16. Human Barbarian        6

Hurthling Monk gets replaced by Human Barbarian. This is the first time Barbarian has made this list, albeit at the bottom.

[grobblewobble]

Can't believe that Orcs rank lowest of all the races. Below ratlings? Wow.

They're my favorite pick for many classes: beastfighters, barbarians, paladins, archers and farmers. As an archer or farmer they used to have a limited ammo problem in the early game, but since the introduction of the goblin village even that is no longer an issue.

Perhaps it is because of their low total stat count? Makes them less exploitable with point buy - I never really got used to point buy.