Evolutionism vs creationism

[fazisi]

The official (by the International Planetary Society) "best guess" age of the universe is 14 billion years old and the Earth is 4.6 billion years old.

Now the average human being has tens of trillions of cells. Most average it between 50-75 trillion cells. Now all of these cells aren't unique, but we would have to assume that each different type has evolved seperately because they share a common ancestor of single-celled organisms. I really should get off of this topic before I get into hot water for being a moron, but I would also like to point out the other sorts of cells in other life forms. I don't know all the kingdoms but I do recall there being things like animals, plants, fungi and bacteria. There's a lot of different types of living cells that have to develop over this period of time.

Now, I admit I suck at biology and because of this, I will use another (oh no!) metaphor. I am halfway decent at math so I might use the simplified example of having 52 consecutive 6/49 winning tickets in a row. Now, as much as I would love to calculate that particular instance, I have only so much patience and free time. Let's just calculate winning it four times in a row.

First off, the 6/49 is a simple game where you pick 6 numbers out of 49. If the lotto machine produces these same numbers, you win loads of cash. This means there are 13983816 different combinations of 6 numbers out of 49. If you purchase only 1 ticket a week, this means your odds are 1:13983816.

Now I want to play two weeks in a row. I purchase one ticket the first week and one ticket the second week. My odds are now 1:195547109921856.

Three weeks in a row, odds are approximately (my calculator isn't really that smart and I am not even going to bother doing this by hand) 1:2734494804479010000000.

Four consecutive jackpot wins odds are 1:38238672198790400000000000000.

So now we try to win four weeks in a row since the birth of the Earth, a short 239200000000 weeks ago. The probability of this is gigantic 0.000000000000000006255%.

Also, I'll admit that this analogy took no consideration of Grey's apparent "billions upon billions of planets", which would be similar to billions of billions of people each trying to win that elusive four-in-a-row 6/49s. However, the trillions upon trillions of difference cell structures which had to develop on Earth alone in the exact same time frame should help to prove my point.

But there are many examples of order arising spontaneously from chaos. Take snowflakes, for example. Beautiful symmetric structures forming out of nowhere. Or take any crystal. Or the market, where a stable equilibrium price spontaneously forms, out of control of any individual buyer or seller. The formation of stars and planetary systems out of a huge cloud of dust and debris. The formation of mountains, clouds, rivers..

Negative. Crystal formations are created in an orderly fashion based on the molecular structure of the crystal's molecules. The market isn't a good analogy for a few reasons, but I will guess most will agree it isn't stable or fair. Formation of stars and planets are also based on laws of chemistry and physics.

[JellySlayer]

Negative. Crystal formations are created in an orderly fashion based on the molecular structure of the crystal's molecules. The market isn't a good analogy for a few reasons, but I will guess most will agree it isn't stable or fair. Formation of stars and planets are also based on laws of chemistry and physics.

Guess what, molecular biology is based on the laws of chemistry and physics too. So is evolution...

[grobblewobble]

I really should get off of this topic before I get into hot water for being a moron

I can only speak for myself, but I actually enjoy the chat. If we would all agree there would be nothing to talk about.

Now the average human being has tens of trillions of cells. Most average it between 50-75 trillion cells. Now all of these cells aren't unique

The number of distinct cell types is smaller than 1000.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...ult_human_body

I don't know all the kingdoms but I do recall there being things like animals, plants, fungi and bacteria.

All those species evolve simultaneously, not one at a time.

I am halfway decent at math so I might use the simplified example of having 52 consecutive 6/49 winning tickets in a row.

I am not sure why you think evolution requires this kind of luck? As I tried to emphasize before, the driving force is repeated selection, not some absurd chain of coincidence.

[fazisi]

I don't know all the kingdoms but I do recall there being things like animals, plants, fungi and bacteria.

All those species evolve simultaneously, not one at a time.

I would hope so given that we have to eat these other things to survive.

I am not sure why you think evolution requires this kind of luck? As I tried to emphasize before, the driving force is repeated selection, not some absurd chain of coincidence.

I don't think you understand how combinations work. It is a selection.

To put it simply, we have 49 numbered balls. We select a ball one at a time. Once a ball is selected, it is removed from the set so there will be no repetition. We do this six times. Therefore, we select 1 of 49, the 1 of 48, then 1 of 47, then 1 of 46, then 1 of 45, then 1 of 44. Thankfully, some people smarter than me came up with a mathematical formula to more easily derive the answer.

( n! ) / ( r! (n-r)! )
n is total number of objects, or the set (49 numbered balls)
r is number of selected objects
! is factorial

so

49! / (6! (49-6)!)
= (49*(49-1)*(49-2)*(49-3)*(49-4)*(49-5)) / (6*5*4*3*2*1)
= 13983816

Now, I'm not going to be pushing some kind of "billions of lotto tickets" kind of craziness on you since it's obvious your great intellect can see through my ruse of falliable logic. It's just absurd. You know, it is much more likely that I will be able to select the correct number of chromosomes in a DNA strand between each gestation period of the parent species of each new mutation to create a new dominant species than win the fucking lottery a few weeks in a row...

[grobblewobble]

If I understand you correctly, you say that if you pick a set of chromosomes at random, it is extremely unlikely you will pick exactly the right one. Is that what you mean? Or maybe I misunderstand you now?

If this is what you mean, then of course you are right that the chance of picking exactly one specific combination of chromosomes is extremely small, much smaller than the chance of winning a lottery. But evolution does not require that one very specific combination of chromosomes is put together in any generation.

[Soirana]

It is too hot for me to do maths, so just for kicks...

what do you think of current epigenetics theories? Does that means Lamarck and Lysenka were not so much wrong?


You also probably know what at least half human embryos get discardd by nature before implantation faze? due to bad combination naturally, so i guess we are all lucky bastards with at least bearable genetic material...

[Soirana]

Now the average human being has tens of trillions of cells. Most average it between 50-75 trillion cells. Now all of these cells aren't unique, but we would have to assume that each different type has evolved seperately because they share a common ancestor of single-celled organisms. I really should get off of this topic before I get into hot water for being a moron, but I would also like to point out the other sorts of cells in other life forms. I don't know all the kingdoms but I do recall there being things like animals, plants, fungi and bacteria. There's a lot of different types of living cells that have to develop over this period of time.

all human cells originate from one One ovum and one spermatozoid...

How these specialise is still quite a mystery, but good part of these is unspecialised or semi unspecialized forms, like fibroblasts and so on...

As i was taught actual evolution [according to last theories] was not staright line process. Some cellular organoids like mitochondries and chloroplasts have their own nuclear information, so it is believed that multicelular life started as symbiotic fusion of several "bacteria" one of these becoming heavily specialised in making energy substracts and other providing food for first one...

As time argument goes i could probably search out something about potential speed of mutanttion in bacterias...

[JellySlayer]

I don't think you understand how combinations work. It is a selection.

I think you're misunderstanding what is meant by selection here. Let's look at a simple case: artificial selection. You're a farmer and you've got a bunch of cows that you like to sell for meat. You're paid by the pound, so naturally you want the biggest, fattest cows you can get. Consequently, when you let your cows mature, you choose only the biggest, fattest, of your males to breed with your females, and you don't breed with the smallest females at all. If you keep doing this for a couple generations, you will find that your cows are bigger than what they used to be, because you are selecting for size.

Natural selection is sort of the same idea, except that the ability to reproduce is the trait being selected. Species that die out in larger quantities before they reproduce, will be selected against compared to those that are more effective at reaching reproductive age. Depending on the species, and the selection pressures (eg. is predation the problem? ability to find food?) different types of traits will end up being selected over others. Each change tends to be small, but if one organism gains a mutation that gives it a 0.1% advantage in reproduction over its neighbours, then within a relatively short timescale, that 0.1% advantage can quickly translate itself into the dominant group.

[fazisi]

If I understand you correctly, you say that if you pick a set of chromosomes at random, it is extremely unlikely you will pick exactly the right one. Is that what you mean? Or maybe I misunderstand you now?

If this is what you mean, then of course you are right that the chance of picking exactly one specific combination of chromosomes is extremely small, much smaller than the chance of winning a lottery. But evolution does not require that one very specific combination of chromosomes is put together in any generation.

The DNA analogy is a bit off because in sexual reproduction, the two halves are donated by the parents. However, to get a mutation, one or both of these halfs would need to contain a defect to produce a mutation at birth. I don't want to get into the whole Bruce Banner gamma rays shit. However, choosing a beneficial mutation out of numerous unbeneficial mutations in a strand of DNA along with the proper time, setting and all that other shit that will allow this mutation to be beneficial (e.g. I got legs and lungs but there isn't any land in 1000 km) seems like a pretty risky lottery to me.

As time argument goes i could probably search out something about potential speed of mutanttion in bacterias...

Oh, I don't doubt how fast bacteria can mutate. However, the gestation period of bacteria is extremely short compared to other organisms, ranging from less than an hour to a couple of days. Meanwhile, when we are trying to mutate extremely complex organisms, such as a bird, the gestation period (or more accurately since they are egg laying, the incubation period) ranges from 3 to 7 weeks. If we want to start mutating some mammals, we start looking at months between offspring and each new generation has an extremely long time of having to mature to the point at which they can produce offspring themselves.

I think you're misunderstanding what is meant by selection here.

I guess I have start giving direct metaphors with subtext to explain what my metaphor means... Which means my lotto analogy doesn't work very well.

In the case of my lotto, it is done in one sitting in one week. However, with evolution, this selection is done over extremely long periods of time. However, this select of six numbered balls can be compared to the selection of new traits. Every single living member of a species buys a lotto ticket a birth. The current living generation at the time of a significant change each check their numbers. Do their numbers match up for them to win a prize? Yes? They survive. No? They are gruesomely removed from the gene pool.

Now, we do another draw. Then another. Then another. Did at least one member (two if they require mates) have the winning numbers four draws in a row for their genes to continue on or did the species reach extinction?

However, we can always drop entire species and go pick up another one to carry on from. Fuck the dinosaurs, they were destined to die. What we need is some warm-blooded hairy things. We keep moving on and on until we reach the cognitive mind contained in apes. The fact we won enough lottos in a row in such a short sample period is a bit like a fairy tale.

[Laukku]

"BELIEVE IN MY THEORY, OR ELSE..."

Fun fact: On 27 May 1855 Darwin wrote to his friend Joseph Hooker about this portrait: "if I really have as bad an expression, as my photograph gives me, how I can have one single friend is surprising."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Charles_Darwin.jpg